"In short, we still do not fully know what caused the run-up in house prices and over-building. Short-term rates were low in 2002-04 as the Federal Reserve countered the risks it saw to good economic performance, and these low rates probably had some effect on housing markets at the time. But the problems largely built up after policy rates were well on their way to neutral, and other factors appear to have played major roles. We have learned little about the likely effect that a somewhat higher funds rate would have had on the speculative element of prices. Of course, it is important to keep an open mind about the relationship of short-term interest rates and speculative activity. If it becomes clear that monetary policy can predictably influence the evolution of bubbles, central banks should take that ability into account when crafting policies intended to keep output rising in line with its potential and inflation low and stable." - Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn At the Cato Institute's Twenty-Sixth Annual Monetary Policy Conference, Washington, D.C., November 19, 2008, "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices Revisited"
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
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