Willing to admit it

Arnold Kling posted today about how Economists as a whole do not know what is going on and that their textbook models are wrong. I couldn't agree more. However, I haven't spoken with anyone who has said, "wow this Rational Exepectations model really helped me forecast this crisis."

Two of my colleagues and I spent some time with Johnny Walker this afternoon... wait I mean John Walker of Oxford Economics. He seemed perfectly willing to admit that his workhorse economic model doesn't work well during this time period. I'm not sure how true this is for academic economists who build models, but I would think that most people who spend their time forecasting are perfectly willing to admit that they use them as a tool to think about the economy rather than something absolute.

In principle Kling is right, it is better to admit pseudo-knowledge than not admit it. I just think that professionals are more willing to admit it than he gives them credit for.