Agriculture Prices

For those who have been watching, CPI core and headline came in flat today.

                 Dec. Jan. Feb.
                 2007 2008 2008
                          
Energy............ 1.7   .7  -.5
Food..............    .1   .7   .4
All items less                                                       
 food and energy     .2   .3   .0

I was under the impression that if agriculture prices increased .4% and energy decreased .5%, then a play today would be long DBA (the ag etf) and short USO (the oil etf). Unfortunately, the market seems to have paid more attention to the fact that CPI overall is negative. As of roughly 3:30, DBA is down 2.3% from the open, but USO is only down .15%. In other words, it would have been a horrible trade. On the other hand, DBA has ripped about 2 dollars since a double bottom around 1:30. Crude had a very intense downtick around 2:14, but besides that, it has trended down. It didn't trade this, but for future reference, it might make sense to wait until any craziness in the market dies down before putting on a trade like this.